🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the period preceding former President Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436K from a initial bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the prior Friday. But the odds had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity right before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a bet based on non-public details," said an industry expert. Several of other traders also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to predict everything from sports outcomes to current affairs. Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."