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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.