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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|