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It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.