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Just two days prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.